The Black Butterfly Effect אפקט הפרפר השחור

אפקט הפרפר השחור בלוג בנושא שינויי אקלים והיתחממות גלובלית The phenomenon whereby a small change at one place in a system can have large effects elsewhere, a butterfly flapping its wings in Rio de Janeiro might change the weather in Chicago. (from//wordnet.princeton.edu) Today We already released 500 billion tons of Carbon to the atmosphere that is a very ‬huge‭ butterfly!

29.3.2026

System Change is needed to stop Climate Change

Implement as soon as possible.

We have a serious crisis and even a possibility of societal breakdown, because of climate change mainly from burning of fossil fuels for energy, deforestation, industrial agriculture and some industrial processes.

Currently the most used ways to reduce emissions are based on switching from one energy source to another, digitalization and sophisticated technology as much as possible, without changing the socio-economic system.

However, methods based on these ways should not be preferred, as they lead to serious harm to nature, health and climate. This is mentioned in a nuanced fashion by the IPCC(59)

Therefore, we will write here how to switch to carbon neutrality in the safest and best ways for the environment and society. These ways are based on reducing overconsumption and nature-based solutions. The reduction can be achieved in many ways, among others through cooperation of the business sector. However, as for now they are sidelined, their emissions reduction potential is underestimated.

We can stop climate change by stopping overconsumption

In total, the implementation of all measures will reduce emissions by much more than 100%, meaning will draw carbon from the atmosphere, which is essential for returning the climate to its normal state as it was before the year 1750.

Regenerative agriculture:

A full transition of all agriculture in the world to regenerative mode could absorb close to 100% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the world.(2)

Of course we need to reduce the level of GHG, not keep it in its current dangerous level, so we need to cut emissions also by other ways for it to work.

Regenerative agriculture is cheaper than chemical farming (24) and already occupies about 15% of all field areas in the world.(23)

Ways of realization:

For this it is necessary to: explain the health and environmental benefits of such food which will facilitate the transition.

Through Cap and Trade system:

Take money from every emitter that emits more than _ GHG for every tonne and give it to every peasant community, farmer, and company that emits less than _ GHG per hectare, so the less they emit, the more they will absorb GHG - the more money they will get. Make it an obligatory international system like the emissions trading System in the European Union. Subnational authorities like cities, states can participate. A way to make everybody be involved.

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency, including green building, can reduce emissions by 50% in the United States according to a report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). (5)

This report is written with the assumption that without electrification this number will be smaller, but from the other side it does not include different methods linked to behavioral changes, which have very high potential, so in reality even without electrification it is probably higher.

Buildings alone are responsible for about 37% of emissions(25) and green building can lower their energy consumption by more than 80%.(26)

Ways of realization:

Among other things, this significantly lowers the payments for electricity, fuel and more. This must be explained to the public, which will expedite the transition. It is necessary to explain the health and environmental benefits, which will help the transition.

Through Cap and Trade system:

Take money from each emitter that emits more than X GHG and give it to each city in which the average energy consumption per household is lower than X. The lower will be the average energy consumption per household the more money the city would get. It should be given to cities because many things related to energy efficiency can be made only by cities and not by private households.

Ecosystem restoration

Reforestation and forest conservation can soak 226 gigatons of CO2, around a third of the anthropogenic excess carbon in the atmosphere.(3)

Grassland restoration alone can soak around 2.5 billion ton CO2 (more than 4% of global GHG emissions) per year.(42 )

Restoring wetlands in the Baltic region can reduce its CO2 emissions by almost 25%.(43)

Trees have many other benefits like increasing soil fertility, providing shade, and more.

Ways of realization:

Through Cap and Trade system:

Taking money from each emitter that emit more than X GHG and give it to:

1) each peasant community, farmer, agricultural company which are emitting less than X GHG because not cutting trees,

2) to each city, which are emitting less than X GHG because not cutting trees,

3) to each company which proceedings are involving deforestation for each ton of GHG not emitted, for example a paper mill which is making paper from agricultural waste instead of trees.

4. Public transport, cycling, walking

A full deployment of public transportation biking, walking, etc. in the United States can reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 15%.(6)

It is not written what modal share means “full deployment” according to this study. If it were like Paris, where 53.3% of the trips in the city were made on foot, 30% on public transport, 11.2% on bicycles and 4.3% on cars,(55,56) it may be even more.

Ways of realization:

It is necessary to explain the health and environmental benefits that will facilitate the transition: an active lifestyle, no traffic accidents, less space taken up by roads and parking lots.

Through Cap and Trade system:

Taking money from all emitters which emit more than X GHG and giving it to cities which have less than Y percent of trips made by cars the more percent will make the trips on foot, bike, public transport the more money the city would receive.

5. Refuse Reduce Reuse Recycle

According to one report, Circular economy in the building, transportation, and food sectors alone can reduce emission by 39%.(35)

Another report says that Circular economy in the plastic, steel, aluminum, concrete and food sectors alone can reduce global GHG by 9.3 billion tons, more than 15% of global emissions.(29)

If applied to all sectors (including textile, gold, wood, hundreds of thousands non plastic chemicals, rare earth elements, water and more) it will be much more.

Another question is how strongly you imply it. According to other sources, the food sector alone is responsible for about 37% of the total emissions (7) 40% of which is thrown away(8), which means that a complete cessation of food waste alone will reduce global emissions by about 15%.

Ways of realization:

Through Cap and Trade system:

Each emitter which emits more than X GHGs, pays money to cities which have more than X percent of products recycled and companies which have more than X percent of their products recycled.

6. Transition to a Sustainable menu

Emissions from industrial meat are higher than emissions from industrial vegetables and fruits. Switching to a Mediterranean menu will reduce emissions from food by 14.55% (5-6% of the global emissions) compared to an Italian average diet (27)

Ways of realization: It is necessary to explain the health and environmental benefits, which will facilitate the transition:

7. City planning

Building in existing neighborhoods causes less emissions than building on open spaces. On average in the world, dense construction emits 25% less than spread over large lots. (9)

Ways of realization: It is necessary to explain the health and environmental benefits, which will facilitate the transition:

8. Population stabilization

Generally in the world the best way to reduce birth rates is reducing child mortality.(30) Stabilization of population can reduce emissions by 35%.(31)

9. Sharing economy

A sharing economy can reduce the emissions of goods and services by 77% - 85%. (45 )

We can not stop climate change by just switching to other energy sources

Mining:

For the production of wind turbines, solar panels, batteries and smartphones, it is necessary to mine rare metals, which already in 2019 when only 2.2 percent of energy was created by them, (41) endangered about 6 million square kilometers of the near natural areas (1), while according to the AR6 around 100% of them need to be conserved (36). These effects are not included in the calculations regarding the effect on the climate of these technologies (1) and as long as this is the case, we cannot say with certainty that it is a good method to stop climate change.

Even the considered as the most ecological solar panel installed on the roof requires 1.2 square meters of land per MWh because of mining needed for the materials.(61) Each square meter of forest stores around 50 kg of carbon(62)which means 50*3.67=183.5 kg of CO2.(63) Meaning if all the materials will come from forest land, each MWh of solar electricity emits 1.2*183.5= 220.2 kg of CO2. Global electricity consumption exceeded 30,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) for the first time in 2024,(64) so if all electricity will come from solar, it will emit 220.02*1,000,000*30,000= 6,606,000,000,000,000 kg of CO2 = around 6.606 billion tons of CO2 per year only from deforestation from mining, which is far more than the emissions of the USA and well enough for that warming will continue.

The global energy consumption is around 186,000 TWh,(65) so if all energy will come from electricity it will be more than 6 times more, close to two thirds of current global emissions, close to the current emissions from fossil fuels, and we will stay without forests with all the consequences.

Nuclear power is considered as the source which is taking the least land: it takes 4 times less than solar(61), which means that if all energy will come from nuclear and the required land will be taken from forests it will emit a little less than 10 billion tons of CO2 - well enough for that climate change will continue.

Also should be added that:

- Global energy consumption is rising fastly.

- This is the number for rooftop solar panels from the most ecological type so other types of solar panels, wind will require more.

- The indirect deforestation impact of mining is 12 times more than the direct impacts.(66)

- The more the minerals become rare - the more soil should be overturned and energy spent to procure the same amount.

- If the energy for mining will also come from solar there will be even more need for those materials.

- If deforestation from agriculture generally reduces forest from one side, take one big piece of forest, deforestation from mining is spread in little pieces all over the forest which increases the risk of ecosystem collapse.(67, 68)

- Grasslands store around 40 - 45 kilograms of carbon per square meter, so if it will come at the expense of grassland it will not change a lot.

- Deep sea mining can be more dangerous than terrestrial mining.

Global energy balance:

According to the research of the group of Axel Kleidon, biomass and wind energy can affect global energy balance (32), direct heat emission can raise the global temperature by 2 degrees if it continues to grow at a rate of 1% per year (currently growing by 2%) and Nuclear and Geothermal energy can contribute to it. (34) Solar energy can contribute to it by creating heat islands (not only by simple change in Albedo) stronger than the Urban Heat Island, as it was clearly shown by measurement of temperature in place. (33, 44) The overall GWP potential of solar panels including this effect are estimated by one study as around 150 kg CO2 for million whatt. (34) Close to these of Natural gas - 201 kg. (51)

The effects of wind energy on the energy balance limit the effectiveness of wind turbines (48) If 1/10 of the projected electricity demand in 2100 will be supplied by wind it will change the seasonal temperature by 0.5 degrees, meaning that if it will be 3/10, it will change it by 1.5 degree.(49)

Covering 20% of Sahara by solar panels will raise global temperature by 0.16 degree and create different disastrous impacts, covering 50% by 0.39 degrees.(50) For achieve 199,721 TW•h we need to cover 496,805 square kilometers, 6% of Sahara.(57) By 2100 the demand can rise to 491,900 TWh.(58 )

Wind turbines induce hot air from the upper to the lower part of the atmosphere, so if all electricity in the USA will be generated from wind it would warm the surface of the continental United States by 0.24 ˚C. The reduction in US warming achieved by decarbonizing the nation’s electricity sector this century, will be 0.1 ˚C. (52)

Fluorinated Gasses:

Solar, wind energy, EVs also create fluorinated gasses which already contribute significantly to climate change.(37) Hydropower reservoirs emit methane. (38) Geothermal energy creates earthquakes. (46, 47)

Health effects from overconsumption:

We have several planetary boundaries crossed or almost crossed, all linked to over consumption. Also we have health effects from overconsumption: Obesity(39), Sedentary lifestyle(40), Screen addiction, exposure to Ionizing and non Ionizing radiation, Noise pollution, Light pollution that will not disappear from the transition from one energy source to another.

Impacts of climate change on different types of energy:

Nuclear plants face increasing climate hazards, such as risks tied to water stress. Weather extremes, sea-level rise and altered precipitation put nuclear plant safety at increased risk. (53) by 2050, 61 percent of all global hydropower dams will be in basins with very high or extreme risk for droughts, floods or both. By 2050, 1 in 5 existing hydropower dams will be in high flood risk areas because of climate change, up from 1 in 25 today. At 2022, only 2% of planned dams was in basins that have the highest level of flood risk, but by 2050, it will be 40%.(54) Already in 2023-2024 climate change created serious problems in using solar, wind and nuclear power.(60)

Carbon Capture and Storage, Geoengineering:

Carbon capture and storage require energy which means that for zero emissions with it we will need to cut energy consumption by half, for this we need again a planned economy. To mitigate its other impacts also. Geoengineering will have an immense impact on all aspects of human life so for not creating collapse we will need to plan our economy and society even more than with the methods described in the first part of this document.

So, as in all cases we will need a planned economy, it is better to have it with the more sure methods described in the first part of this document.

Conclusion:

To stop the ecological crisis we need to limit consumption.

To limit consumption, we need a sharing economy otherwise those which have less will want to increase it.

For a Sharing Economy we need Peace with Total Disarmament, otherwise countries will not share resources and will increase consumption for increased military potential.

For creating a Sharing economy and Peace we need Democracy, otherwise resources will not be shared justly and wars will not stop.

Total Disarmament means Democracy, Sharing economy, respect of Human rights and Peace because you can not violate all this without weapons.

The fact that we need all this for solving the current crisis and limiting consumption to the best level for people means also not killing living creatures without need, prove, in my opinion, the existence of some force which will tolerate humans on Earth only if they will follow the rules generally described as “doing Good”.